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Prediction markets are making a 150-year comeback

NPR· May 21, 2026· 51m 34s

Prediction market sites allow users to put money on everything from the war in Iran to the winner of the Super Bowl. But where did these markets come from? And what can that history tell us about where they might be going? Today on the show, how betting on popes and presidents long ago planted a seed for a “terrorism market” in the early 2000s, and how those early prediction markets shaped the industry that has taken hold today. Guests: Koleman Strumpf , economics professor at Wake Forest Univer

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Prediction markets are making a 150-year comeback

🇬🇧English🇬🇧English
Sample transcript — click Live captions above to run Whisper on the actual audio in your browser.
  1. Welcome to the program. I'm your host.

    Welcome to the program. I'm your host.

    0:00
  2. Today we look at the major stories shaping the news cycle.

    Today we look at the major stories shaping the news cycle.

    0:04
  3. We start in Europe, where leaders met in Brussels.

    We start in Europe, where leaders met in Brussels.

    0:09
  4. The summit focused on energy policy and migration.

    The summit focused on energy policy and migration.

    0:14
  5. Reporting from the ground, our correspondent has more.

    Reporting from the ground, our correspondent has more.

    0:19
  6. Thank you. The mood here was tense but constructive.

    Thank you. The mood here was tense but constructive.

    0:24